23-09-07

the difference between quantitative and qualitative risk assessment

I am reading a lot nowadays about risk assessment. The best advice I should give you is to read several books before talking to consultants because every book seems a bit different from another, so without having enough background information the consultants will be able to push you in a particular direction. If he is just out to earn a lot of money, he will set up a very complicated and enduring process that will lead nowhere on the field.

Today I experienced a good example of the difference between quantitative and qualitative risk assessment.

The belgian national railways are working on their infrastructure and for this reasons trains to the coast would take 40 minutes more than usual.

In the quantitative risk assessment the probability of having a sunny weekend this weekend is statistically nearly non-existant. And so if one informs everybody that is on the train during the weeks before would be sufficient.

In the qualitative risk assessment there is a probability that there can be a very sunny weekend during these weekends and so there is a possibility that thousands of people will take the train who didn't take the train during the weeks before because there was no sun. So you should foresee communication on tv and radio and in the press and you must foresee more extra trains and be prepared that if anything else goes wrong you have the procedures in place to restore the network or trainnetwork because otherwise there will be an exponential dynamic of chaos.

A stupid example. I do not believe there is any professional risk assessment in our national railway company.

23:56 Gepost door technology changes fast not a lot in Algemeen | Permalink | Commentaren (0) |  Facebook |

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